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Overview of
all studies: Because of the largely unexpected transformational
power of molecular manufacturing, it is urgent to understand the issues
raised. To date, there has not been anything approaching an adequate study
of these issues. CRN's recommended series of thirty
essential studies is organized into five sections, covering fundamental
theory, possible technological capabilities, bootstrapping potential,
product capabilities, and policy questions. Several preliminary conclusions
are stated, and because our understanding points to a crisis, a parallel
process of conducting the studies is urged.
CRN is actively
looking for researchers interested in performing or assisting with this
work. Please contact CRN Research Director Chris
Phoenix if you would like more information or if you have comments
on the proposed studies.
Study
#24
What
beneficial or desirable effects could this have?
Explore
positive factors that will promote the development and deployment of molecular
manufacturing (MM).
Subquestion
How
much could the technology reduce illness and disability?
Preliminary answer
Simple things like
water filters and fast, cheap, easy medical sensors could make a big difference.
At first, rapid diagnosis of disease would allow effective quarantine.
Later, the ability to rapidly develop products should accelerate medical
research and speed the process of finding cures; large-scale quarantine
operations may become unnecessary even for new diseases. And the ability
to monitor a body in detail and in real time should reduce the risks of
new therapies, streamlining research still further. Prosthetic devices,
including sensory prosthetics, would be greatly improved.
Advanced automated
treatment devices could be made very cheaply, allowing semi-skilled delivery
of medical care. Think of automatic defibrillators in airports. Now project
that approach into devices with wide-spectrum real-time biochemical sensors
that can dispense appropriate medicines.
Surgical robots
could become far smaller, more capable and automated, less invasive. Even
without bloodstream robots, a catheter-based approach can be used to clean
important blood vessels or repair cartilage. A smart catheter could be
smaller than a hair, and used by a general practitioner in an outpatient
context.
Subquestion
To
what extent could the technology alleviate underdevelopment?
Preliminary answer
A general-purpose
self-contained factory could bootstrap a region's productivity in a matter
of weeks. The main limiting factor would be the availability of designs
to solve local problems. But see Gershenfeld on "fab
labs".
Subquestion
Could
this help with food and water shortages?
Preliminary answer
Diamond-building
chemistry could not directly make food. But it could make greenhouses,
allowing more reliable food production with less resource usage. It could
also make water filters and the required energy supply (solar), both for
increasing fresh water supplies and treating runoff or wastewater.
Subquestion
How
much and in what ways (e.g. replacing manufacturing, infrastructure, extraction)
could it alleviate environmental problems?
Preliminary answer
Most
of today's components that rely on extracted materials, such as metals
and rare earths, could be emulated with higher performance by nano-built
systems. Carbon-based products could be disposed of by clean combustion.
More automation means fewer
people have to work in factories, reducing transportation requirements
for both people and materials. More efficient agriculture could reduce
soil loss, water use, and agricultural runoff. Cleanup of existing problems
would be easier with better and cheaper sensors and robotics.
Some serious thinkers
are concerned about a global environmental collapse in the next few decades,
even apart from the Peak Oil problem. Large-scale use of MM could alleviate
much environmental pressure, and actively correct many problems.
Subquestion
Which
natural disasters could it prevent or alleviate?
Preliminary answer
Easier access
to space makes it much easier to deal with asteroids. Also, vastly cheaper
construction of telescopes makes it easier to spot them. Large-scale engineering
projects could defuse volcanoes and even calderas by turning them into
massive geothermal energy projects. Stronger construction could resist
earthquakes and hurricanes. Also, large-scale construction of automated
aircraft/helicopters could suppress wildfires and aid in rapid evacuations.
Better sensors would allow better prediction of weather and climate. (For
more, see Our
Molecular Future by Douglas
Mulhall.)
Subquestion
How
much could these benefits reduce social unrest?
Preliminary answer
Poverty, contagious
and parasitic disease, and hunger could be drastically reduced at extremely
low cost. To the extent that these fuel social unrest, the application
of these technologies would reduce the unrest. However, new problems such
as social disruption and boredom may emerge.
Subquestion
How
much cost savings does this represent?
Preliminary answer
Most sources of
product cost would virtually disappear. Even design cost might decrease,
as shown by the Open
Source software movement. Indirect costs of technological activity,
such as pollution, could be substantially reduced.
Subquestion
How
much commercial incentive is suggested by these questions?
Preliminary answer
The difference between
production cost and user value of nano-built products will be astronomical.
This provides a high incentive for developing the technology—and
then manipulating policy so as to maintain artificial scarcity. Artificial
scarcity would cancel many of these benefits.
Conclusion
Molecular
manufacturing could be a major benefit to humanity, saving lives, mitigating
environmental problems and hazards, and reducing misery enough to substantially
reduce social unrest. However, this all depends on policy.
The situation is
extremely urgent. The stakes are unprecedented, and the world is unprepared.
The basic findings of these studies should be verified as rapidly as possible
(months, not years). Policy preparation and planning for implementation,
likely including a crash development program, should begin immediately.
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