Results of Our Ongoing Research

These pages, marked with GREEN headings, are published for comment and criticism. These are not our final findings; some of these opinions will probably change. LOG OF UPDATES

CRN Research: Overview of Current Findings

• Timeline for Molecular Manufacturing
• Products of Molecular Manufacturing
• Benefits of Molecular Manufacturing
• Dangers of Molecular Manufacturing
• No Simple Solutions
• Administration Options
• Possible Technical Restrictions
• The Need for International Control
• The Need for Immediate Action
• A Solution that Balances Many Interests
• The Need for Early Development
• The Need for International Development
• Thirty Essential Nanotechnology Studies ◄ YOU ARE HERE

Thirty Essential Nanotechnology Studies - Introduction

Overview of all studies: Because of the largely unexpected transformational power of molecular manufacturing, it is urgent to understand the issues raised. To date, there has not been anything approaching an adequate study of these issues. CRN's recommended series of thirty essential studies is organized into five sections, covering fundamental theory, possible technological capabilities, bootstrapping potential, product capabilities, and policy questions. Several preliminary conclusions are stated, and because our understanding points to a crisis, a parallel process of conducting the studies is urged. 
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CRN is actively looking for researchers interested in performing or assisting with this work. Please contact CRN Research Director Chris Phoenix if you would like more information or if you have comments on the proposed studies.

NOTE: We are completely dependent on small grants and individual contributions. If you want this dialogue and research to keep moving ahead, we need your help! Donations to CRN are deductible as charitable contributions for income tax purposes.

Understanding molecular manufacturing is urgent.	CRN believes it is urgent to understand several issues related to molecular manufacturing (MM), to prepare for its possible development sometime in the next decade. The technology will be more transformative than most people expect, and could develop too rapidly for reactive policy to succeed. MM is the result of convergence of many technologies, and will benefit from synergies between them. It will be more powerful than most people will be able to comprehend without serious study.
	Molecular manufacturing, along with other technologies that it will enhance or enable, will create new problems and new opportunities that require new solutions. To date, there has not been anything approaching an adequate study of these issues. This series of pages presents some of these issues in the form of thirty recommended studies. CRN’s preliminary answers are included to reinforce the relevance and urgency of the investigation.
The 30 studies are organized into five sections.	The studies are organized in several sections. The first section covers the fundamental theory: insights that may be counterintuitive or unobvious and need explanation, but that can be double-checked by simple thought. The second section addresses technological capabilities of possible molecular manufacturing technologies. The third section addresses 'bootstrapping'—the development of the first self-contained molecular manufacturing system (which will then be able to produce duplicates at an exponential rate), including schedule considerations. The fourth section explores the capabilities of products, building toward the fifth section, which raises serious questions about policies and policymaking.
CRN's preliminary conclusions.	To begin this iterative process, we have supplied provisional answers to each study, with supporting data where available. Several preliminary conclusions should be noted here:
	Programmable positional chemistry, with the ability to fabricate nanocomponents, can be the basis of an extremely powerful manufacturing technology. The importance of this is substantially unrecognized. Development of molecular manufacturing may be imminent, depending on whether any of several actors has begun investigating it already. We believe that a program started today, even outside the United States, could finish in under a decade, including development of a substantial product design capability. Development activity may be very difficult to detect. Several considerations, including economics and product sophistication, point to MM being a transformative, disruptive, destabilizing, and potentially dangerous technology. Although the technology may be quite dangerous, avoidance and prevention are not viable options. Simple attempts to dominate or control the capability will also be unworkable. MM will also have many productive uses, and policy must account for the global-scale problems it can solve as well as a possible high level of civilian demand/utilization. Policymaking and preparation will be complex and difficult, and will require substantial time.
Section One:	Technical and Foundational
	This section covers the fundamental theory behind molecular nanotechnology manufacturing: insights that may be counterintuitive or unobvious and need explanation, but that can be double-checked by simple thought.
Study Titles:	1. Is mechanically guided chemistry a viable basis for a manufacturing technology? 2. To what extent is molecular manufacturing counterintuitive and underappreciated in a way that causes underestimation of its importance?
Section Two:	Capabilities of Molecular Manufacturing Technologies
	Molecular manufacturing (MM) is the use of programmable chemistry to make programmable products, including duplicate manufacturing systems. Programmability implies automation, and duplication implies low capital cost. MM may drastically reduce the cost of both products and manufacturing capacity. In addition, precise control of chemistry should produce very strong structure and very compact functionality. High performance products imply high performance manufacturing. Quantifying these advantages is necessary to understand the impact and desirability of MM.
Study Titles:	3. What is the performance and potential of diamondoid machine-phase chemical manufacturing and products? 4. What is the performance and potential of biological programmable manufacturing and products? 5. What is the performance and potential of nucleic acid manufacturing and products? 6. What other chemistries and options should be studied?
Section Three:	Development of Molecular Manufacturing Technologies
	Molecular manufacturing does not exist today. This section explores the requirements of developing a molecular manufacturing technology.
Study Titles:	7. What applicable sensing, manipulation, and fabrication tools exist? 8. What will be required to develop diamondoid machine-phase chemical manufacturing and products? 9. What will be required to develop biological programmable manufacturing and products? 10. What will be required to develop nucleic acid manufacturing and products? 11. How rapidly will the cost of development decrease? 12. How could an effective development program be structured?
Section Four:	Product Performance
	This section suggests metrics for manufacturing and product capability. The following studies should be run for each plausible molecular manufacturing technology. These questions will be answered for diamondoid systems based on the Phoenix nanofactory design.
Study Titles:	13. What is the probable capability of the manufacturing system? 14. How capable will the products be? 15. What will the products cost? 16. How rapidly could products be designed?
Section Five:	Policies and Policymaking
	This section assumes the existence of a general-purpose molecular manufacturing system. It suggests problems and opportunities raised by molecular manufacturing, and hints at the difficulties of making policy to deal with them. The answers in this section, as in the previous section, assume a diamondoid nanofactory technology.
Study Titles:	17. Which of today's products will the system make more accessible or cheaper? 18. What new products will the system make accessible? 19. What impact will the system have on production and distribution? 20. What effect will molecular manufacturing have on military and government capability and planning, considering the implications of arms races and unbalanced development? 21. What effect will this have on macro- and microeconomics? 22. How can proliferation and use of nanofactories and their products be limited? 23. What effect will this have on policing? 24. What beneficial or desirable effects could this have? 25. What effect could this have on civil rights and liberties? 26. What are the disaster/disruption scenarios? 27. What effect could this have on geopolitics? 28. What policies toward development of molecular manufacturing does all this suggest? 29. What policies toward administration of molecular manufacturing does all this suggest? 30. How can appropriate policy be made and implemented?
Work should begin immediately.	The situation is extremely urgent. The stakes are unprecedented, and the world is unprepared. The basic findings of these studies should be verified as rapidly as possible (months, not years). Policy preparation and planning for implementation, likely including a crash development program, should begin immediately.

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